Schor weaker Than '17, still in solid shape going into November

WEDNESDAY, Aug. 4 — Remember last year at about this time? A small band of mostly young, white-guilt, out-of-towners literally banged on Lansing Mayor Andy Schor's front door, calling on him to resign?

Tuesday's election results — with Schor pulling in nearly 50% of the primary vote — proved all this public tumult came with an awful lot of bark and next to no bite. Parading down Moore's River Drive every once in a while is one thing. Spending months knocking doors and making the case for an acceptable alternative takes much more work.

To the extent any organized, invisible anti-Schor campaign was afoot, the results don't show it.

Who was the progressive, defund-the-police option? Who was the only candidate to aggressively and effectively call out Schor for not appearing more supportive, initially, to the plight of young black men who historically have not gotten the benefit of the doubt from police?

That was Farhan Sheikh-Omar, who didn't run a bad campaign by the way, and he got 8.5% of the vote.

As it turns out, Lansing residents actually want a well-funded Police Department. Councilmember Kathie Dunbar, the other defund-the-police candidate, squeaked into the Nov 2 General Election with an underwhelming 20% of the vote after running a lethargic campaign. Still, she had a "good night," according to her own election analysis: For her, a "good night" would be finishing second and holding Schor to under 50% of the vote, she said Tuesday at her party for supporters at southside eatery. She did both.

Claretta Duckett-Freeman, the loudest voice of the at-large City Council candidates for a drastically different Police Department, placed fourth in the race for two at-large spots. It's good enough to make the general, but she has about 785 votes to make up to win a seat in November.

And then there's the millage restoration proposal. That effectively raises more money for police and fire. That passed 2:1.

Yes, Schor's vote total is down. In August 2017, Schor brought in 8,402 votes compared to his 6,191 on Tuesday. But Dunbar didn't bring in more votes than 2017's second-place finisher, Judi Brown Clarke, either.

The results in the mayor’s race were:

• Andy Schor, 6191 votes, 49%
• Kathie Dunbar, 2561 votes, 20.2%
• Patricia Spitzley, 2067 votes, 16.3%
• Farhan Sheikh-Omar, 1,074 votes, 8.5%
• Melissa Huber, 537 votes, 4.2%
• Larry Hutchinson Jr., 211 votes, 1.7%

Dunbar needs to make up 30 percentage points. She needs to grab practically every anti-Schor vote and do it on an anti-policing message that appeals mainly to an ideological base of Okemos/West Bloomfield liberals. Remember, Patricia Spitzley didn't support defunding the police. She ran an even less inspiring campaign than Dunbar — and was still only 500 votes behind Dunbar.

Dunbar also has a lot of ground to make up without the money Schor has managed to amass. Of the $28,000 Dunbar raised for the primary, $18,000 came from her own pocket, which is curious itself. In January, Dunbar declined to voluntarily return 10% of her roughly $26,500-a-year Council salary (around $2,650) because "I'm a single mom and I'm caring for three." Yet, the executive director of a nonprofit found $18,000 to run for mayor?

Meanwhile, Schor enters the General Election with $234,000 in cash on hand. The mayor is also knocking doors. If Dunbar is knocking doors, she didn't come around my neighborhood of reliable primary voters. Sheikh-Omar did. To say the underfunded Dunbar has an uphill climb is understating the situation.

The only person who is in better shape than Schor at this point is Lansing City Council President Peter Spadafore, who didn't run much of a primary campaign and still blew out his opponents for a first-place finish on Tuesday. Four opponents will face off in November for the two at-large slots.

Jeffrey Brown, an executive consultant by trade, used several union endorsements to put together an impressive second-place finish Tuesday. That's a good sign for him. Historically, Lansing city votes don't fluctuate much. You win the primary. You'll likely win the general.

His biggest threat should be Lansing School Board Vice President Rachel Willis, the former director of the East Lansing branch of Bethany Christian Services, who finished 634 votes behind him. Duckett-Freeman is in the conversation, but she'll need to leapfrog Brown and Willis. Spadafore's reelection feels like a given.

The results in the Lansing City Council at-large race were:

 Peter Spadafore, 6,187 votes, 29.4%

Jeffrey Brown, 3,633 votes, 17.3%

Rachel Willis, 2,999 votes, 14.3%

Claretta Duckett-Freeman, 2,848 votes, 13.5%

Linda Keefe, 2,103 votes 10%

Linda Appling, 1,868 votes, 8.9%

Grant Blood II,897 votes, 4.3%

D. Taft, 501 votes, 2.4%

Incumbent Jeremy Garza should be set in the Second Ward after winning with 66% in a three-candidate field.

The results in the Second Ward were:

Jeremy Garza, 1,875 votes, 66%

Oprah Revish, 710 votes, 25%

Nicklas Zande, 258 votes, 9%

The 4^th Ward seat, occupied by Brian Jackson, was not on the primary ballot because only two candidates are running. Challenger Elvin Caldwell is running a much different campaign than the one he ran in 2017 in which he only managed 252 votes in the primary.

This year, Caldwell is working. He's knocking doors. He hasn't filed a campaign finance report, but Jackson hasn't figured out how to turn his reports in on time, either.

Overall, Tuesday's primary election was a ho-hummer. Less than 15% of registered voters showed up. More fireworks exploded in Lansing on the July 4 holiday than this whole campaign combined.

Absent some game-changing event, it's hard to envision much changing in three months.