Health officials: ‘Return to normal’ from COVID-19 unlikely in 2021

As soon-to-be President-elect Joe Biden was celebrating the results of the primary in Michigan hours after polls closed, Gov. Gretchen Whitmer was facing down an array of TV cameras. It was March 10, the date COVID-19 was detected in Michigan. And it would consume the nation.

Days later, officials in Ingham County acknowledged the first cases had arrived in Greater Lansing.

In the intervening time, Michigan has been dealt a streak of stay-at-home orders, a largely shuttered economy and the rise of a constituency hellbent on fighting the health orders designed to keep them safe and to prevent hospital systems from drowning in rising caseloads.

In Ingham County, one of the first major outbreaks of the virus was discovered on the city’s southwest side among immigrant populations, most of whom worked at either the Meijer warehouse in Delta Township or Herbruck’s poultry and egg production facility in Ionia County.

Conservatives still railed against health orders, social distancing and face masks. They challenged orders that shuttered indoor dining, as well as other indoor activities where the virus was more likely to spread. By the end of April, thousands filled the streets of Lansing causing massive traffic disruptions to protest the health orders. Two weeks later, armed protesters joined hundreds of others in storming the State Capitol building demanding an end to the state orders.

Some businesses tried to fight back by continuing to operate in violation of health orders, which in turn resulted in disciplinary action from local and state governments. Ultimately, the Michigan Supreme Court overturned a 1945 emergency law which Whitmer used to issue her orders. Those were later replaced by orders from the state Department of Health and Human Services.

Ingham County Health Officer Linda Vail worked with government officials in East Lansing to create mask-required zones in the downtown areas of the college town, while issuing quarantine orders on some 30 different properties that housed dozens of people — some with the virus.

Still, the coronavirus continued to prey on Greater Lansing and continues to hammer the nation.

Nine months after the first cases, a glimmer of hope is on the horizon of the coming year. Two vaccines have been approved by federal regulators and health officials have begun administering them to frontline medical providers as well as nursing home residents and workers.

Vail predicts that vaccines will be widely available for just about everyone by April 2021. Even with a massive vaccination campaign, it won’t be like flipping a switch back to normal, she said.

Vail said that her team is only receiving 975 doses of the Pfizer vaccine each week.

“I can administer that in a day.” she said.

With thousands of frontline health workers already in line for the country’s first doses, thousands have been left waiting for their turn in the vaccination queue. The state, in tandem with national pharmacy chains like CVS and Walgreen’s, announced on Monday a comprehensive, three-week plan to deliver the second vaccine, by Moderna, to skilled nursing facilities statewide.

Officials estimate that about 70-85% of the country will need both doses of the vaccine before COVID-19 eventually stops spreading between people — a point known as herd immunity.

Before the vaccines were approved, about half of Americans were reportedly hesitant to get one. Vail said that attitude has shifted to a “wait and see” approach over the last three weeks.

And even with the vaccines rolling out this month, Vail said she doesn’t see any loosening of statewide restrictions like those on large group gatherings and mask wearing for another year.

She also realizes that as restrictions on gatherings and masks loosen, there will be lingering health issues related to a year (or more) of reduced human contact and socialization. Dr. Adineke Shoyinka, chief medical officer in Ingham County, said many local residents have already been demonstrating concerning trends of increased mental health issues. Vail concurs.

Officials have tracked a rise in substance abuse and depression among youth and adults — issues that will linger on for months, even after a return to “normal,” Vail explained.

Vail is also concerned that a year or more of remote education will impact kids and teachers.

“Kids are pretty resilient,” Vail added. “Most of them will bounce back. What I do worry about is the impact of distance learning on test scores. How are universities going to account for what is likely to be a reduction in testing scores? And what about teachers, who are evaluated in part on those test scores? I do worry about those things a lot. I’m not sure we know the answer to that.”

On top of the impact of social isolation, Vail also recognizes that the way America does business is likely going to change forever. Work-from-home options have revealed that some employees are actually getting more done from their home office than in the usual work office.

“I think we will see some businesses shifting from that,” Vail said. “There will still be a need to connect with coworkers in some way, but I think traditional offices will not return to the same.”

Once the vaccine reaches an adequate level of herd immunity, scientists will also still be struggling to understand and address the lingering effects of the coronavirus itself, Vail added.

Many people recover from the virus without lingering impacts, but a small percentage have what has become known as “long haulers’ syndrome.” That syndrome can impact the heart, the lungs and the brain and include ongoing fatigue and muscle aches, according to the Mayo Clinic.

An Ohio State University study also reportedly determined that as many as 15% of college athletes who recovered from COVID-19 had a heart inflammation that could be severe enough to cause death. Another study published in the Journal of the American Medical Association found that 75% of recovering COVID-19 patients also showed signs of lingering heart issues — a number that Vail found shocking. “There is a lot more to learn at this point,” she said.