Polling shows it. Progressive energy is real

Before I dive too deeply into two polls that form the crux of this week’s column, I’m going to share my philosophy on polls. What they are and what they’re not.

Here’s what a poll is: a look into the probable voting pattern of a specific cross-section of the population.

Here’s what a poll isn’t: a crystal ball on the outcome of the race.

I’m not saying Abdul El-Sayed and William Lawrence are headed to Washington, D.C. next year. What I am saying is that right now, mid-May 2026, the energy in the Michigan Democratic Party is with progressives.

And progressives like El-Sayed and Lawrence a lot.

Steve Mitchell of Mitchell Research and Communication has May 1-7 polling data showing a progressive U.S. Senate candidate is up with 28% support over Haley Stevens (18%) and Mallory McMorrow (17%) in a Democratic primary. (The poll was run by Data for Progress from April 23 to 28 and polled 533 likely Democratic primary voters with a +/- 4 margin of error).

 – El-Sayed is doing exceptionally well with voters 44 years of age and younger.

 – McMorrow is winning with those 45 and 64

 – Stevens is winning with the Black population.

“It has generally been the rule that the most liberal Democrats vote in a Democratic Primary and the most conservative Republicans vote in a Republican Primary,” Mitchell said. “With El-Sayed tacking far left, and in opposition to both the United States and Israel in Gaza and Iran, El-Sayed is running as the most progressive and liberal candidate.”

Now, you can say Mitchell is all wet. You could argue that there’s no way El-Sayed is up 10 points on Stevens and 11 points on McMorrow. 

It’s easy to call this an outlier, try to ignore it, and move on. 

However, what Mitchell is finding is not novel. Look around. Where is the passion?

Who made up the thousands of people agitated enough at the state of America to show up to these No Kings rallies or the Michigan Democratic Party endorsement convention? 

It’s not your check-in, check-out passive Democratic Party voter. Maybe El-Sayed being up 10 points would seem odd in 2022 when restoring a woman’s right to choose was the biggest driver of votes. In 2026, though? 

Go back to 2016 when literally every poll had Hillary Clinton beating Bernie Sanders by 10 points or more going into Michigan’s presidential primary. Sanders narrowly won. Were the polls wrong? They were accurate in telling us the preferences of those they asked, I’m sure. The polls simply didn’t accurately choose the universe of people who were going to vote.

Mitchell says his data show these Sanders voters are coming back and they’re motivated.

And who did Sanders come back to Michigan to campaign for the other day? El-Sayed.

Is there any question that those who want El-Sayed to be their next Senator are going to vote? Absolutely none. They’d lay on tracks for that guy.

The progressive movement is hot right now. If you want more proof, take a look at William Lawrence.

The Lansing area-native released his internal poll numbers showing him leading against two D.C.-powered opponents for the Democratic nomination in the 7th Congressional District.

Granted, “undecided” is winning by a landslide (52%), but Lawrence has himself up 20% to Ambassador Bridget Brink’s 14% and former Navy SEAL Matt Maasdam’s 10%

Obviously, these are internal numbers, and this could all be rainbows and unicorns, but like El-Sayed, Lawrence’s heightened visibility makes them believable. The guy is everywhere.

How many Bridget Brink or Matt Maasdam yard signs have you seen popping up in people’s yards? For me, I can’t think of a lot. I’m noticing the Lawrence signs. I will say that.

While Brinks and Maasdam’s national consultants are digging into the other candidate’s background and drip-dripping another local official’s endorsement, Lawrence is talking to real people about his campaign. That’s what I’ve seen.

At some point, I imagine McMorrow, Stevens, Brinks and Maasdam will empty their bank accounts on some late TV spends. I’m sure that will move numbers. 

But we’re only six weeks away from absentee ballots getting mailed out.

Look around. You can see where the energy in the Democratic Party is coming from. It’s from progressives who already know who they’re voting for.

(Kyle Melinn is the editor of the Capitol news service MIRS. You can email him at melinnky@gmail.com.)