Whither our congressional district?

We’ve known U.S. Rep. Elissa Slotkin for two-plus years here in Lansing, but what are the odds we’ll get a chance to vote for her in 2022?

The short answer is more unlikely than likely.

Every 10 years, after a U.S. census is conducted, states need to rejigger their congressional lines in a way that better reflects where people live. That’s this year.

Projections have Michigan losing one of our U.S. House of Representatives seats, going from 14 to 13. That would follow the downward trend we’ve seen since the 1970s as population has increased in southern states. Michigan had 19 members of the U.S. House in 1971, 18 in 1981, 16 in 1991, 15 in 2001 and 14 in 2011.

Redistricting warhorse Ed Sarpolus a while ago drafted up a map of what Michigan’s congressional lines could look like with 13 districts. His first crack doesn’t have Slotkin representing Ingham County at all.

The 8th District would include Troy, Madison Heights and Oakland County’s most southeastern suburbs. Ingham and Clinton counties would join U.S. Rep. Peter Meijer’s 3rd Congressional District.

It’s possible. The political considerations about saving specific members’ territories is out the window with this new redistricting commission.

Instead, “communities of interest” is a central focus. Lansing, being located in the center of the state will be swallowed up by a districts to the north, the west, the south, the east or even the northeast. Lansing simply isn’t large enough to anchor its own district without causing geographical problems elsewhere.

Here are five scenarios that could realistically play out as the commission breaks up the state into 13 different areas. This assumes the commission keeps the two predominately Black districts in adherence with the Voting Rights Act, which splits Detroit in half and expands the district held by U.S. Rep. Brenda Lawrence north into Macomb County and the one held by U.S. Rep. Rashida Tlaib further south into Wayne.

1. Lansing stays with Slotkin. Since at least the 1930s, Ingham County and Livingston County have been almost always in the same district. Starting in the 1980s, northern Oakland County was added to the mix. The redistricting commission could use that model, but Slotkin would need to lose Rochester Hills and possibly other parts of Oakland as Lawrence’s district swells northward. Under this scenario, Shiawassee and/or Clinton would need to rejoin the 8th — as was the case in the 2001 maps.

The question the commission will need to answer, however, is whether northern Oakland County and Lansing are “communities of interest.”

2. Ingham, Jackson and Eaton are roped in together. As Tlaib’s district is pushed south, U.S. Rep. Debbie Dingell’s district is pushed more into Washtenaw County, which is experiencing exploding growth. If Dingell’s district includes Monroe, the commission could rope Ingham into what is now the 7th District. Jackson and Ingham are in the same media market, after all. Ingham and Jackson were together in the 1960s and ‘70s maps, too. Can’t imagine conservative U.S. Rep. Tim Walberg would like it, but he doesn’t get a vote … . Shoot, under this scenario, his Tipton home might not be in the district anyway.

3. Kent and Ionia grab Ingham through Clinton. Under the first Sarpolus map, Grand Rapids would join Holland, Muskegon and Grand Haven into a Super West Michigan district. Suburban Kent County, Ionia and Montcalm would stretch to the east and we’d all become the 3rd District, which is represented by Meijer. This would create a I96 district, which is a link.

4. Flint and Lansing. As recently as the 1950s, Ingham and Genesee counties were in the same district through Livingston County. These days, that trio would exceed the population threshold for a congressional district, but linking the two with Shiawassee County — creating an I69 district — would probably not. Flint and Lansing has some similarities although, again, this would merge a couple media markets. Considering the other alternatives out there, our new U.S. representative, Dan Kildee, would be thrilled with his new bright blue district.

5. Midland and points north. This is the most unlikely of the scenarios, but it’s not improbable that U.S. Rep. John Moolenaar, R-Midland, sees his district pushed a little further north into Lansing from Clinton County, which is in his 4th District. If the West Michigan-based 2nd remains a shoreline district, as it is today, Moolenaar’s district is limited in where it can go. U.S. Rep. Jack Bergman’s Northern Michigan 1st District is basically immovable. Meijer’s district could go north into Newaygo and Mecosta — which is the same media market. That pushes Moolenaar into Lansing, at least, potentially splitting the county. There’s no good direct route from Midland to Lansing, but it could be done.

(Kyle Melinn of the Capitol news service MIRS is at melinnky@gmail.com.)