Is Trump stirring up a ‘Blue Tsunami’ for suburban K-Zoo?

This is the third part in a six-part series reporting on the presidential campaign in Michigan in different locations across the state. This series is paid for by contributions from you to the City Pulse Fund for Community Journalism. To contribute, please go to lansingcitypulse.com/donation.

OSHTEMO TWP  — At the Husted’s Farm Market, a woman plucking apples for her homemade pies and fritters shook her head when asked how she’d describe her community’s political behavior.

Refusing to share her name and equipping her hair to veil her emotions like an invisibility cloak, she said, “I don’t know. I keep to myself — there’s a reason why we keep to ourselves.” 

Nearby, a graffitied vehicle is broadcasting anything but secrecy. In neon writing on back windshield reads: “Oh lord, we the people need the truth! But we get — draft dodger, lyer, tax cheat, whore monger, racist Donald J. Trump.”

Today’s trip around Purple Michigan takes us to the 61st state House District, an agriculturally driven community of professionals snuggled around the city of Kalamazoo County. Its main communities of Portage, Oshtemo Township and Texas Township represent the smudge of historical lavender within Michigan’s red-versus-blue political quarrels.

It’s a thoughtful district of notorious ticket-splitters. It’s a place where some see unsolicited political conversations as bad manners and invasive to their family-oriented civilization.

Like any community, though, there’s no shortage of folks displaying their nearly radioactive political expressions. Outspoken or not, folks have made up their mind Trump, but they prefer to keep them to themselves.

“They’re not mentioning him,” said term-limited state Rep. Brandt Iden, R-Oshtemo Twp., who is knocking doors for Republican state House candidate Bronwyn Haltom. “They didn’t support him last time and they’re not going to support him now. For them, there’s no reason to continue a discussion on it.”

The polling numbers speak volumes. A Mitchell Research & Communications survey last month showed Joe Biden is up 54% to 38% on Trump here, a considerably larger margin than the 49%-45% margin by which Clinton beat Trump in the 61st in 2016.

The feeling from political observers and folks on the ground is that Trump’s latest bout with COVID-19 isn’t going to make much of a difference either.

“It’s all part of the political show that only a small minority really pay attention to,” said Jason Howard, a lifelong Portage resident and beer distributor. “I think it’s based on fundamental values for a voter, and I think their minds are made up.” Trump’s COVID-19 “continues to raise awareness for how real this thing is and how it affects everybody individually.” 

The difference in the 61st is that the sharp turn away from Trump doesn’t necessarily spell doom for local candidates like Haltom or Iden before her. Iden overperformed GOP gubernatorial candidate Bill Schuette by 8 points in 2018 to retain his seat.

With majority of the state House on the line, Republicans are counting on voters who want to meet their local representatives face-to-face to swing it for Haltom, a 27-year-old political consultant. Mailboxes are flooded with pro and con mail for her and Democratic opponent Christine Morse.

No House district in the state is seeing as much TV ad spending as the 61st (close to $500,000), according to the Michigan Campaign Finance Network.

Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist was stumping for Morse, a Kalamazoo County commissioner, on Friday. Gov. Gretchen Whitmer is slated to appear for the 54-year-old stay-at-home mother and breast cancer survivor Wednesday.

Both Whitmer and Gilchrist are hoping to make it a clear sweep for Democrats in an area that could decide who wins a competitive U.S. House race between 17-year incumbent Fred Upton and Democratic state Rep. Jon Hoadley.

Traditionally, Upton and other Republicans have had no problem in this former home of uber-conservative ex-Rep. Jack Hoogendyk. This time around, Trump is poisoning the political well in the land of college employees and Pfizer executives.

“I know that the area. I hear that it’s a little more politically conservative. I can tell you that where I live right now, people up and down my road are mostly Biden signs,” said Carolyn Kennedy, a 40-year district resident of the district.

Kennedy said one of her reasons for voting Democrat this upcoming Election Day “is everything.” 

“Particularly on the national level, I am very, very concerned about the direction of the country. I think of what Trump has done and I am just completely sick of all of the lies, the incompetent leadership, the corruption — I can go on and on,” Kennedy said. 

She said she even wonders if her perception of the area being conservative is incorrect, especially as those in her immediate circles are majorly non-Republican. 

Meanwhile, Howard said he’s likely voting for Trump. He said others he knows who support the president prioritize success and tax structure over concerns around his rhetoric. There are plenty of those folks, too.

Portage consists of residents employed anywhere from the global likes of Stryker Corp., which invested $109 million into creating an industrial site in the city during 2018, to two-person start-ups. With Kellogg’s, Whirlpool and Walmart taking up significant residencies, business is a huge driver for voters, Howard said. 

While that may be the case, Democrat Keshia Dickason of Texas Township, who is running to take over Morse’s seat on the Kalamazoo County Commission, said there isn’t a particular poster child of the area, but instead an entire poster family. 

“They try to remain family-oriented and the importance is what’s going to help the family — not so much as a way to help one’s pockets grow, but what’s important for the family,” Dickason said.

That may be why Hoadley is confidently predicting a “blue tsunami” will sweep over suburban Kalamazoo.

He said the 61st House District is the embodiment of so many voters who woke up to the fact that the Republican Party has detached itself far away from the values that once drew them to the polls. 

“I’ve talked to so many families who are struggling with virtual learning,” he said. “They’re figuring out how to keep their families safe during the COVID-19 pandemic. They’re worried about healthcare and the environment and they’ve watched as Trump’s Republican Party moves further away from the concerns they care most about.”